At this point, the market is once again hovering in the “balanced” area – where supply and demand come into alignment and it is neither a buyer’s nor a seller’s market. The chart below shows how in 2002 the market was in balance.

In 2003 demand became greater than supply, and prices began to inch upward. We were in a seller’s market. Although the balance began to shift back toward a balanced market late in 2004, prices continued to climb – skyrocketing in 2005 and reaching their peak in late 2007. Prices remained high even though the balance of supply and demand had shifted back into a buyer’s market by late 2005.

Then the flood of distressed properties on the market from 2008 through early 2009 drove prices ever downward.

Chart Courtesy of The Cromford Report

The market is still dominated by lender-owned and pre-foreclosure homes for sale in Phoenix, but the percentage of lender owned homes currently listed is far short of the percentage being sold. Hopefully, as the last of these are sold, the market will stabilize and prices will reflect a normal supply and demand.

Chart Courtesy of The Cromford Report

A look at the monthly average sales prices tells us that the lowest monthly average in 2002 was $154,392. And while we don’t yet have the averages for May of this year, the most recent figures available show a low average for 2010 of only $136,000.

Thus, you can buy a home in Phoenix today for nearly 12% less than you would have paid in 2002, before the prices began their meteoric rise to the peak average of $340,683 in August of 2007.

But it gets even better than that. Interest rates have also fallen by an average of 2%. And when it comes to interest rates, 2% is a huge number.

Assuming 100% financing for the sake of comparison, here’s what that means in terms of money going out of your pocket:

Had you purchased a home in 2002 at the average price of $154,392 you would have paid approximately 7% interest, bringing your payment to $1,027 per month.

Today, you can buy a comparable home for $136,000 – about 12% less. And as of this week’s rates, you’ll pay only 5% interest, for a payment of only $730 per month. So your monthly payment will be 28.9% less!

Predictions about the future abound, but most financial experts agree that interest rates will rise, and it could happen quickly. Some also say that prices may continue to tumble. But as you can see, the interest rate will have a greater impact on your financial future than saving a few thousand on the purchase price.

Even if that home priced at $136,000 dropped another 10% to $122,400, but the interest rate returned to 7%, your mortgage payment would be $814 per month – $84 more than if you purchased today.

If you plan to stay in your home for several years, and can say “yes” to these questions, now is a fantastic time to buy a home in Phoenix.

• Do I love this house?
• Can I comfortably afford the monthly payment?

What about other reasons for buying a house? I came up with 21 Reasons to Buy a House in Arizona few months ago- and those reasons were good enough for me.

This diversity may also account for the peaks and valleys in median home selling prices over the years. For instance, in 2005, when the medians most months ranged from $195,000 up to $310,000, December saw a spike up to $437,500.

As in most areas of Phoenix, median home prices steadily rose from the 2002 prices that ranged between $150,000 and $175,000 until they peaked in 2007. In 2007 the low median was $244,000 and the high was $458,750. Then the price decline began, and in 2009, some months showed a lower median sales price than during any month in 2002.

Lender owned homes are, of course, putting downward pressure on the entire housing market in Phoenix. Zip code 85016 is no different, with distressed homes accounting for only 34% of the listings but 53% of the sales. These lender-owned homes and short sales sold in April 2010 for under $98 per square foot, while non-distressed homes sold for an average of $155 per square foot.

On the good news side, two years ago homes were staying on the market an average of 156 days. In April 2010 that average was down to 115 days. In addition, the number of sales per month is up 25% from 2009.

Courtesy of Google maps

Looking back to 2002, you can see that home prices in zip code 85018 have been on a wild ride. In 2002 the median monthly price ranged from $205,000 in January up to about $280,000 in November. Then the upward climb began…

2003 saw monthly median home prices between $215,000 and $350,000. In 2004 the low was $260,000 and the high $465,000. By 2005 the majority of home sales ranged from $380,000 to $480,000.

This creep upward continued, and in 2006 the low median was $415,000 with a high of $600,000. Median prices finally peaked in 2007 – with a high of $672,500 in July, just before they began the downward slide.

As you can see from this chart, 2008 began with a median of about $440,000 and then, after a few peaks and valleys, crashed all the way down to $220,000 by December.

After home prices rose an average of 240% from January 2002 to January 2007 and then slid almost all the way back down, they are once again creeping upward. 2009 saw monthly medians ranging from $225,000 to $415,000.

Courtesy of the Cromford Report

This rise is in spite of the effect of short sales and lender owned homes. In March 2010 the average home price per square foot for both short sales and lender owned homes was just under $162, while the non-distressed homes sold for an average of $219.40 per square foot.

Since distressed homes in zip 85018 now account for only 23% of the listings but 37% of the sales, perhaps we can look forward to those distressed properties being cleared out soon. Once they are no longer putting downward pressure on home prices, averages should once again begin to climb.

This will be good news for home sellers, but it means that home buyers who have been waiting should probably make the move soon – while both home prices and interest rates are still low.

This is a neighborhood of large lots with small “storybook” homes averaging about 1,200 to 1,300 square feet in size. There were 175 homes built in Woodlea and most of them are of the Transitional Early Ranch style, but a few were constructed in the Tudor style.

Woodlea Historic District is a diverse and well-kept community, with homes boasting either lush green mature plantings surrounded by trees, or desert landscaping. The people are diverse as well, with a mix of  young families, senior citizens, and everyone in between. Some residents are the original homeowners, and a few are 2^nd and 3^rd generation Woodlea residents.

Located a few blocks north of Indian School Road, Woodlea lies just west of 7^th Avenue – which has become a cultural and small business destination. Artists’s studios, boutiques, music shops and restaurants inhabit historic buildings, offering a bit of nostalgia to the hustle and bustle of business enterprises.

Map Courtesy of the City of Phoenix Official Website - Historic Preservation Office.

Only one home in Woodlea Historic District has been sold this year, with two more currently in “pending” status. Current homes for sale in Woodlea range in prices from $99,900 to $173,000.

As in the other historic districts, short sales and lender owned properties are affecting prices. While the single non-distressed home is listed at $130.57 per square foot, distressed homes are currently listed at an average price per square foot of $92.69.

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Yaple Park Historic District is located in the northestern part of zip code 85013, just south of the Grand Canal from another Historic District – Pierson Place.

Map Courtesy of the City of Phoenix Official Website - Historic Preservation Office.

In the years from 1929 to 1938 developer Floyd Medlock built dozens of homes, most under 1300 s.f. and most in the Transitional Early Ranch Style. This adherence to one style can be attributed to policies coming out of the New Deal, as can the further development in Yaple Park. FHA Mortgage financing programs brought about by the New Deal were initiated in Arizona in 1935.

Floyd Medlock also developed Medlock Place.

A total of 46 homes were built in Yaple Park by July of 1939, representing an investment of over $200,000, all attributable to FHA mortgages.

This small historic district is still dominated by the smaller homes built during this period.  However, there were a few exceptions.

Of the older homes currently for sale, one is typical of those first homes – offering two bedrooms, one bath, and 943 s.f. of living space. The other could very well be the nicest historic home to become available in years. Situated on a 1/3 acre lot and boasting 4 bedrooms, formal living and dining rooms, and even a separate guest house, this 1939 Tudor is a spectacular home, offered at $439,000.

Not every lot was developed back in those early days, so Yaple Park Historic District also offers one nearly new home for sale. Built in 2009, this is a 3-level contemporary style home boasts 3,519 square feet of living space. Interestingly, all three Yaple Park homes currently listed for sale are located on Roma Avenue.

While only 3 homes are currently for sale in Yaple Park Historic District, 5 have been sold since December, at an average price per square foot of $157.46. This figure is no doubt affected by the two lender-owned homes that were sold.

Current offerings are normal sales and average $177.60 per square foot.

Although city-designated as a Phoenix Historic District several years ago, Yaple Park is among 11 Phoenix Historic Districts being considered for addition to the Arizona and National Historic Registers.

The other four Historic Districts in zip code 85013 are Campus Vista, Pierson Place,  Woodlea, and Medlock Place.

Homes for sale in Yaple Park Historic District:

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Several different developers and builders had a hand in creating this district, and each had their own ideas for development.

One 40 acre tract in Pierson Place Historic District was split into one-acre lots in 1926, with an interesting intention. This area, just a ten minute drive north from downtown Phoenix, was a popular location. Developers knew that demand for building would increase, so when they split their 40 acres, they planned for their first purchasers to build their homes and then later split the lots and make a profit.

In 1928 builder E.W. d’Allemand began building homes and selling lots in the northern portion of this neighborhood, offering 1/5 acre lots in addition to one acre and half-acre lots. These lots were fronted by hard-surface streets and came with water from a deep water well, plus telephone and electrical service to each lot. Lot prices started at $395.

d’Allemand built homes on both a speculative and made to order basis, and 20 homes had been constructed. The deed restrictions he imposed called for homes that cost at least $2,500 – exclusive of the lot.

What a contrast to 2010 prices!

Although home prices are still depressed by the presence of lender-owned homes and short sales, the average price of pending sales in Pierson Place is $143,940 and the average for active listings is $208,450. Homes in this area average just over 1,200 square feet, so the average selling price for homes sold between November 2009 and March 2010 is $93.39.

Homes in this Historic District were constructed between 1924 and 1956, but those offered for sale as of March 26, 2010 were built from1939 to 1947. Prices range from $129,900 for an 1,152 square foot home offered as a short sale to $319,000 for a 1,911 square foot home offered as a normal sale.

The following homes are currently listed for sale in Pierson Place:

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Campus Vista, located in the southwest corner of zip code 85013, sits just to the east of Phoenix College and Phoenix Junior College. This area was developed mainly between 1939 and 1956, and homes currently for sale in this Historic District were constructed between 1941 and 1951.

Campus Vista Historic District Homes in Phoenix Zip Code 85013

Home prices in Campus Vista Historic District range from a low of $160,000 to mid $500,000. Happily, while lender owned and short sale homes dominated the sales over the past 6 months, only one of the pending and active listings in this historic district is in distress. These home prices reflect a range from $75 per square foot to $248 per square foot.

Recently sold homes in Campus Vista Historic District reflect list price to sale price ratios of 95% to 109% – good news for future home sellers.

Earlier, we reported the same good news for Medlock Place Historic District, where homes range in price from mid $200,000 to around $700,00 and none are offered as short sales or lender owned.

Graph courtesy of www.cromfordreport.com

Zip code 85013 overall is showing sold home prices for January 2010 between $55 per square foot for lender owned homes and $131 per square foot for non-distressed homes. Short sales sit between them at $80 per square foot. Current listing prices are from 28% to 43% higher – perhaps signaling an end to bargain basement pricing?

While lender-owned homes are still taking a share of the market from non-distressed homes, in January 2010 they accounted for only 28.5% of the sales – equal with short sale homes. 58% of the homes listed for sale as of February 4, 2010 are non-distressed, while 43% of the homes sold in January 2010 were non-distressed.

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Phoenix Zip Code 85015 is Home to North Encanto Historic District

Part of this diversity may be due to the fact that nestled into the southeast corner of zip code 85015, you’ll find Phoenix’s North Encanto Historic District. Here homes are offered for sale starting at about $149,000.

While Encanto-Palmcroft, Encanto Manor, and Encanto Vista enjoy close proximity to Encanto Park and Golf Course, North Encanto lies adjacent to Phoenix College.

A look back over the past few years shows that the price of homes sold in 2005 ranged from a low of $68,000 all the way up to $450,000, while 2006 showed a range from $139,900 up to $480,000. During those years it was common to see homes selling for more than their listed price.

Year 2007 saw average home prices still in the 200’s, but in 2008 the widespread housing market distress hit full force, with the average home price in zip 85015 dropping all the way to $60,000 in December 2007. Average home prices here hit a low in February 2009 when they fell to $52,500.

Market Distress by Zip Code - 85015

Foreclosures and pre-foreclosures are, of course, still holding home prices at unnatural lows. During January 2010 each category of homes for sale accounted for about 1/3 of the listings, but lender-owned homes made up 48% of the sales, taking their extra share of the market from the non-distressed homes for sale.

During January 2010, lender-owned homes sold for an average of $48.05 per square foot – 9.8% below their list prices, while “normal” listings sold for $74.41 per square foot, which was 24% lower than list prices.

Interestingly, the pre-foreclosure homes sold for 11% more than the list price, on average. Even while buyers are searching for bargains, this may indicate a willingness on their part to pay a little more for a home that is well-maintained, and that comes with the disclosures that are legally required of owner-sellers. Lender-owned homes have no such disclosures.

As lender-owned homes dominate Phoenix real home sales, they are becoming harder to find. This could be a good sign. As these foreclosure bargains disappear from the market, home prices in zip code 85015 and in all of Phoenix should begin to rise.

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]]> http://www.explorephoenixhomes.com/2010/03/phoenix-zip-code-85015-is-home-to-north-encanto-historic-district/feed/ 0 http://www.explorephoenixhomes.com/2010/02/encanto-historic-districts-home-prices-phoenix-az/ http://www.explorephoenixhomes.com/2010/02/encanto-historic-districts-home-prices-phoenix-az/#comments Mon, 01 Mar 2010 05:57:26 +0000 Anna Kulbinski http://www.explorephoenixhomes.com/?p=710 The Phoenix Historic Districts of Encanto-Palmcroft, Encanto Manor, and Encanto Vista are situated around the Encanto Park and Golf Course, and take up the northernmost part of zip code 85007, north of  Interstate 10.

Encanto-Palmcroft, just south of the golf course, was the first to be developed, with the majority of homes being built between 1920 and 1952. Encanto Manor to the north and Encanto Vista to the east saw significant development during the 40’s and 50’s.

The oldest home for sale in Encanto today was built in 1928, while the newest was constructed in 1957.

Although their proximity to the golf course and their historic status does put these homes in a more elite class, these historic districts have also been affected by the housing downturn. Over the past 12 months 23 homes have been sold, with 10 of those being lender-owned and 2 short sales. Since more short sales than lender owned properties are offered for sale, this could be due at least in part to the delays and difficulties faced in closing short sales.

The lender-owned homes have naturally led a decline in average pricing, with one home in Encanto Vista being sold in December 2009 for only $100,000 – or $52.36 per square foot.

As of February 2010, 5 of the 12 homes listed for sale are either lender-owned or offered as short sales, with the lowest priced offering at $203,900 – or $83.90 per square foot. Two homes which are currently in pending status, however are normal sales and were offered at $199 per square foot or more.

Prices in these historic districts vary widely – from the lender-owned home at $203,900 all the way up to 3 homes with an asking price of more than $1 million in the Encanto-Palmcroft community.

Average price per square foot in Encanto for properties sold in the last 12 months is $170. The lowest sold at $52.36 and the highest at $245.00 per square foot.

If you’d love to live near the golf course and would appreciate the grace and charm of a historic home, give me a call. I’d love to take you on a tour!

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